⚽ Sports Forecast

Win, draw and loss probabilities and likely scores for Europe's top leagues and the Champions League, computed by a statistical model.

Every forecast locks at kick-off and is graded on the 90-minute result.

Live record

All time57.9%368 matches

Last 30 days57.9%368 matches

Brier score0.573lower is better

Championship

50%60

Serie A

68%50

EPL

57%40

La Liga

65%40

UCL

63%38

Eredivisie

50%36

Ligue 1

56%36

Bundesliga

50%36

Portugal

68%28

Libertadores

25%4

Can you trust the percentages?

0%–10%

12.2%41

10%–20%

16.5%121

20%–30%

20.6%465

30%–40%

35.6%163

40%–50%

58.5%135

50%–60%

52.1%94

60%–70%

68.9%45

70%–80%

74.1%27

80%–90%

66.7%9

90%–100%

100.0%4

Back-test (model v1.0)

Ratings built on 2023/24, settings chosen on 2024/25, then scored on 2025/26 matches that were never used for tuning.

Accuracy50.6%Baseline 43.3%

Brier score0.596Baseline 0.650

Log loss0.998Baseline 1.074

3,597 matches · Baseline = guessing from each competition's historical home/draw/away rates

Accuracy by competition

UCL

59.1%Baseline 51%

Portugal

54.5%Baseline 42%

Ligue 1

53.9%Baseline 46%

Serie A

52.7%Baseline 40%

Eredivisie

52.1%Baseline 44%

Bundesliga

51.8%Baseline 42%

La Liga

51.7%Baseline 47%

EPL

49.5%Baseline 41%

Championship

44.9%Baseline 43%

Can you trust the percentages?

How often outcomes actually happened in each forecast band. The dot marks the real rate.

0%–10%

7.4%690

10%–20%

15.7%2,526

20%–30%

26.1%7,786

30%–40%

33.9%3,599

40%–50%

44.2%2,385

50%–60%

53.1%1,538

60%–70%

64.9%904

70%–80%

78.4%454

80%–90%

81.0%205

90%–100%

85.7%28