Win, draw and loss probabilities and likely scores for Europe's top leagues and the Champions League, computed by a statistical model.
The remaining 234 matches simulated 10,000 times with the model's probabilities.
| Team | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation (bottom 2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern | 82 | 95% | >99% | – |
| Dortmund | 69 | 5% | 97% | – |
| RB Leipzig | 60 | <1% | 69% | – |
| Leverkusen | 59 | <1% | 63% | – |
| Stuttgart | 54 | – | 33% | <1% |
| Freiburg | 52 | – | 20% | – |
| Elversberg | 48 | – | 8% | <1% |
| Bremen | 46 | – | 4% | 1% |
| Frankfurt | 44 | – | 3% | 2% |
| Hoffenheim | 44 | – | 2% | 2% |
| Mainz | 42 | – | 1% | 3% |
| Augsburg | 40 | – | 1% | 7% |
| SC Paderborn | 39 | – | <1% | 10% |
| HSV | 36 | – | <1% | 23% |
| Schalke | 34 | – | – | 32% |
| 1. FC Köln | 33 | – | – | 34% |
| Union Berlin | 33 | – | – | 39% |
| M'gladbach | 32 | – | – | 47% |
Top 4 = Champions League places (actual places can differ by competition rules and coefficients)
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 8 | +19 | 18 | 1789 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 8 | +8 | 18 | 1690 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 8 | +8 | 16 | 1588 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | +11 | 15 | 1628 |
| 5 | Bremen | 8 | +3 | 15 | 1550 |
| 6 | Leverkusen | 8 | +2 | 13 | 1645 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 0 | 13 | 1560 |
| 8 | Frankfurt | 8 | -5 | 11 | 1560 |
| 9 | Mainz | 8 | 0 | 10 | 1561 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | +3 | 9 | 1548 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 8 | -1 | 9 | 1625 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 8 | -2 | 9 | 1576 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | -3 | 9 | 1502 |
| 14 | SC Paderborn | 8 | -3 | 9 | 1547 |
| 15 | HSV | 8 | -12 | 9 | 1526 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | -12 | 7 | 1516 |
| 17 | Schalke | 8 | -5 | 6 | 1536 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 8 | -11 | 4 | 1515 |