Win, draw and loss probabilities and likely scores for Europe's top leagues and the Champions League, computed by a statistical model.
The remaining 207 matches simulated 10,000 times with the model's probabilities.
| Team | Proj. pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegation (bottom 2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV | 76 | 62% | 89% | โ |
| Feyenoord | 72 | 28% | 69% | โ |
| Ajax | 66 | 5% | 21% | โ |
| Twente | 66 | 5% | 19% | โ |
| AZ | 58 | <1% | 2% | โ |
| Heerenveen | 50 | โ | โ | โ |
| Sittard | 47 | โ | โ | <1% |
| Groningen | 46 | โ | โ | <1% |
| NEC | 45 | โ | โ | 1% |
| Utrecht | 45 | โ | โ | 1% |
| Cambuur | 44 | โ | โ | 1% |
| Go Ahead | 42 | โ | โ | 2% |
| Telstar | 37 | โ | โ | 7% |
| Sparta | 37 | โ | โ | 8% |
| Excelsior | 35 | โ | โ | 17% |
| Zwolle | 34 | โ | โ | 20% |
| Den Haag | 30 | โ | โ | 45% |
| Willem II | 16 | โ | โ | 99% |
Top 2 = Champions League places (actual places can differ by competition rules and coefficients)
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 11 | +21 | 25 | 1615 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | +17 | 24 | 1582 |
| 3 | PSV | 11 | +22 | 23 | 1660 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | +18 | 23 | 1582 |
| 5 | AZ | 11 | +7 | 20 | 1542 |
| 6 | Sittard | 11 | 0 | 19 | 1465 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | +6 | 18 | 1506 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | +2 | 15 | 1491 |
| 9 | Cambuur | 11 | +1 | 15 | 1474 |
| 10 | Go Ahead | 11 | -4 | 14 | 1471 |
| 11 | Sparta | 11 | -6 | 12 | 1454 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 11 | -12 | 12 | 1512 |
| 13 | NEC | 11 | -2 | 11 | 1518 |
| 14 | Zwolle | 11 | -11 | 11 | 1437 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | -12 | 11 | 1432 |
| 16 | Telstar | 11 | -7 | 9 | 1454 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 11 | -11 | 6 | 1440 |
| 18 | Willem II | 11 | -29 | 2 | 1372 |