Win, draw and loss probabilities and likely scores for Europe's top leagues and the Champions League, computed by a statistical model.
The remaining 270 matches simulated 10,000 times with the model's probabilities.
| Team | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation (bottom 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barça | 93 | 76% | >99% | – |
| Real Madrid | 87 | 21% | >99% | – |
| Atleti | 79 | 3% | 99% | – |
| Real Betis | 67 | – | 73% | – |
| Real Sociedad | 56 | – | 10% | <1% |
| Villarreal | 55 | – | 8% | <1% |
| Athletic | 53 | – | 5% | 1% |
| Sevilla FC | 50 | – | 2% | 2% |
| Deportivo | 48 | – | 1% | 4% |
| Celta | 47 | – | 1% | 6% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 45 | – | <1% | 9% |
| Elche | 45 | – | <1% | 11% |
| Alavés | 43 | – | <1% | 15% |
| Espanyol | 43 | – | <1% | 16% |
| Levante | 43 | – | <1% | 16% |
| Getafe | 42 | – | – | 21% |
| Valencia | 41 | – | – | 25% |
| Osasuna | 41 | – | – | 28% |
| Santander | 36 | – | – | 57% |
| Málaga | 29 | – | – | 90% |
Top 4 = Champions League places (actual places can differ by competition rules and coefficients)
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 11 | +34 | 30 | 1792 |
| 2 | Atleti | 11 | +14 | 28 | 1705 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | +18 | 27 | 1772 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | +3 | 23 | 1658 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 0 | 19 | 1591 |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 11 | -2 | 17 | 1556 |
| 7 | Athletic | 10 | +4 | 15 | 1596 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 11 | +1 | 14 | 1574 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 0 | 12 | 1622 |
| 10 | Celta | 11 | 0 | 12 | 1588 |
| 11 | Alavés | 11 | -2 | 12 | 1556 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | -5 | 12 | 1582 |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | -8 | 12 | 1560 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | -1 | 11 | 1552 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | -11 | 11 | 1545 |
| 16 | Santander | 11 | -14 | 11 | 1551 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | -4 | 10 | 1562 |
| 18 | Levante | 11 | -5 | 10 | 1556 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | -9 | 9 | 1565 |
| 20 | Málaga | 11 | -13 | 5 | 1538 |