Win, draw and loss probabilities and likely scores for Europe's top leagues and the Champions League, computed by a statistical model.
The remaining 290 matches simulated 10,000 times with the model's probabilities.
| Team | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation (bottom 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 87 | 81% | >99% | โ |
| Man City | 78 | 17% | 98% | โ |
| Brighton Hove | 68 | 1% | 72% | โ |
| Liverpool | 67 | 1% | 68% | โ |
| Chelsea | 60 | <1% | 26% | โ |
| Aston Villa | 57 | โ | 11% | <1% |
| Brentford | 56 | โ | 10% | <1% |
| Bournemouth | 55 | โ | 8% | <1% |
| Newcastle | 51 | โ | 2% | 2% |
| Everton | 50 | โ | 2% | 3% |
| Leeds United | 49 | โ | 1% | 3% |
| Tottenham | 47 | โ | 1% | 5% |
| Man United | 47 | โ | 1% | 7% |
| Fulham | 44 | โ | <1% | 12% |
| Nottingham | 42 | โ | <1% | 19% |
| Hull City | 39 | โ | โ | 35% |
| Crystal Palace | 39 | โ | โ | 38% |
| Coventry City | 37 | โ | โ | 52% |
| Ipswich Town | 35 | โ | โ | 61% |
| Sunderland | 35 | โ | โ | 63% |
Top 4 = Champions League places (actual places can differ by competition rules and coefficients)
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | +9 | 24 | 1798 |
| 2 | Man City | 9 | +10 | 21 | 1735 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 9 | +17 | 19 | 1663 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | +4 | 16 | 1639 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 | +2 | 15 | 1699 |
| 6 | Brentford | 9 | +7 | 14 | 1631 |
| 7 | Everton | 9 | 0 | 13 | 1604 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | +1 | 12 | 1642 |
| 9 | Tottenham | 9 | 0 | 12 | 1595 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | -3 | 12 | 1662 |
| 11 | Hull City | 9 | +1 | 11 | 1481 |
| 12 | Leeds United | 9 | +1 | 11 | 1600 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | -3 | 11 | 1622 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 9 | -4 | 11 | 1522 |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | -2 | 9 | 1594 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 9 | -7 | 9 | 1531 |
| 17 | Man United | 9 | -5 | 7 | 1614 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | -12 | 7 | 1571 |
| 19 | Nottingham | 9 | -6 | 6 | 1586 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | -10 | 5 | 1526 |