Win, draw and loss probabilities and likely scores for Europe's top leagues and the Champions League, computed by a statistical model.
The remaining 216 matches simulated 10,000 times with the model's probabilities.
| Team | Proj. pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegation (bottom 2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 81 | 58% | 87% | – |
| SL Benfica | 78 | 31% | 74% | – |
| Sporting CP | 74 | 11% | 39% | – |
| Acad. Viseu | 57 | – | <1% | – |
| Braga | 55 | – | – | – |
| Santa Clara | 54 | – | – | – |
| Arouca | 51 | – | – | – |
| Gil Vicente | 47 | – | – | <1% |
| Famalicão | 44 | – | – | <1% |
| Moreirense | 42 | – | – | 1% |
| Alverca | 41 | – | – | 2% |
| Vitória SC | 40 | – | – | 2% |
| Amadora | 33 | – | – | 18% |
| CD Nacional | 31 | – | – | 27% |
| Marítimo | 31 | – | – | 31% |
| Rio Ave | 30 | – | – | 36% |
| Casa Pia | 30 | – | – | 37% |
| Estoril Praia | 28 | – | – | 46% |
Top 2 = Champions League places (actual places can differ by competition rules and coefficients)
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 10 | +21 | 30 | 1672 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 10 | +19 | 25 | 1679 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | +12 | 21 | 1689 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 10 | +9 | 21 | 1525 |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | +6 | 20 | 1513 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 10 | +3 | 20 | 1516 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 10 | +1 | 15 | 1509 |
| 8 | Braga | 10 | +1 | 14 | 1576 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | -4 | 14 | 1490 |
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | -1 | 11 | 1486 |
| 11 | Famalicão | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1531 |
| 12 | Amadora | 10 | -4 | 10 | 1433 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 10 | 0 | 9 | 1496 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 10 | -12 | 8 | 1464 |
| 15 | CD Nacional | 10 | -9 | 7 | 1444 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 10 | -14 | 7 | 1442 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | -14 | 7 | 1438 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 10 | -14 | 2 | 1448 |