Win, draw and loss probabilities and likely scores for Europe's top leagues and the Champions League, computed by a statistical model.
The remaining 280 matches simulated 10,000 times with the model's probabilities.
| Team | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation (bottom 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 84 | 65% | 99% | โ |
| Roma | 79 | 22% | 91% | โ |
| Como 1907 | 74 | 6% | 69% | โ |
| Lazio | 72 | 4% | 59% | โ |
| Milan | 69 | 2% | 42% | โ |
| Juventus | 65 | 1% | 20% | โ |
| Napoli | 63 | <1% | 13% | โ |
| Frosinone | 59 | โ | 5% | โ |
| Atalanta | 55 | โ | 1% | <1% |
| Bologna | 55 | โ | 1% | <1% |
| Genoa | 46 | โ | โ | 2% |
| Fiorentina | 45 | โ | โ | 3% |
| Torino | 45 | โ | โ | 3% |
| Cagliari | 43 | โ | โ | 5% |
| Sassuolo | 39 | โ | โ | 18% |
| Parma | 37 | โ | โ | 25% |
| Udinese | 35 | โ | โ | 36% |
| Lecce | 33 | โ | โ | 52% |
| Monza | 30 | โ | โ | 73% |
| Venezia FC | 27 | โ | โ | 84% |
Top 4 = Champions League places (actual places can differ by competition rules and coefficients)
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | +16 | 28 | 1641 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | +13 | 25 | 1723 |
| 3 | Roma | 10 | +18 | 24 | 1687 |
| 4 | Como 1907 | 10 | +10 | 23 | 1668 |
| 5 | Milan | 10 | +9 | 21 | 1652 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 10 | +10 | 20 | 1550 |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | +3 | 17 | 1647 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | +4 | 14 | 1634 |
| 9 | Bologna | 10 | +1 | 14 | 1593 |
| 10 | Torino | 10 | -2 | 13 | 1539 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | -4 | 13 | 1537 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | -6 | 13 | 1516 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | -4 | 11 | 1603 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | -10 | 9 | 1488 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | -7 | 8 | 1519 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | -8 | 8 | 1556 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | -10 | 8 | 1511 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | -7 | 7 | 1454 |
| 19 | Udinese | 10 | -12 | 5 | 1516 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 10 | -14 | 3 | 1473 |